What to watch for? The most substantial global supply chain shift that the world has ever seen. Stay tuned…………….I am seeing some wild moves due to tensions with China and COVID supply chain delays
Arizona as a whole outpaces the rest of the country by far when it comes to unemployment rates, economic growth and real estate activity. Migration patterns continue to favor Arizona as residents migrate to Arizona from densely populated cities and states. Reasons for migration include COVID, real estate prices, taxes, regulations and climate. As this mass migration continues, the demand for the residential market continues to stay very strong. This demand is fueling the industrial market as residential developers spur more demand for industrial supply houses and trade related businesses.
The demand for office and retail nationwide and especially in densely populated cities will decrease substantially. The demand for office and retail in Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, and Florida will remain steady without noticeable increases or decreases as the migration demand will offset the COVID effects on office and retail. We would also expect new retail development due to the quickly changing world of retail. Drive through developments for retail will increase and last mile will begin to pop up more in retail projects as DoorDash leases their first Tucson last mile distribution location and Amazon continues to expand, spurring other retailers to compete and sign new distribution related leases. I would expect the large big box retailers including home improvement and grocery stores to start leasing distribution spaces to adjust and compete with Amazon, GoPuff, and DoorDash. Rumors of Amazon taking over JC Penney locations may be foreshadowing for last mile distribution.
The Downtown Tucson market as a whole seems to be hit the hardest as restaurants and bars face shut down procedures. The loss of income will have to be mitigated through rent structures and mitigation between landlords and tenants. We would expect the vacancy rates for office and retail downtown to increase and will take a few years to get back to 2019 levels. This recovery will be directly related to consumer confidence in dine in eating and whether or not office employees decide to work from home or the office. The industrial market downtown felt some losses but has since been filled up from northwest demand that cannot be solved with limited Northwest supply.
Another trend that I’ve noticed is the baby boomer generation retiring. Lots of baby boomer business owners have been phasing out of the business for years but have not officially made the move. I met with 3 different business owners last week that have decided to shut their businesses down and sell their buildings. They’re reason for shutting down is COVID. COVID hasn’t affected their income but the stress and shifts have spurred these business owners to move on to the next phase of life, retirement.
Tucson Demand Predictions:
Office: Down but not by much
Retail: Down but not by much
Tucson Supply Predictions:
Office: No change
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Max Fisher, Industrial Properties Broker