The stock market is down, the media is blasting coronavirus on every media platform, and we’re not sure how it will affect our local market. Short term I feel we will start to feel the effects within the next few weeks but the effects will be related to supply chain. Long term, I feel this will help the US as a whole, I’ll get to that in a bit.....
China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the world which makes the US very reliant upon Chinese goods, especially commodities. I have already seen one tenant start to default on their lease due to the supply chain issue. Parts of China have manufacturing shut down and aren’t able to produce and ship their products to US companies which is going to hurt US companies. Home Depot is sold out of masks party because of high demand but mostly because China decided to turn their ships around and keep all of the masks. That’s how powerful China is when it comes to supply chain.
The good news is that the US is realizing how dependent we are on China which may spur manufacturing to continue moving back to the US and possibly at a quicker rate. If the coronavirus continues to stagnate the Chinese economy, we will be forced to start manufacturing more in the US and Mexico. We’ve already realized this with energy and are now ramping up domestic energy production.
For right now I would expect to see Chinese commodities become tougher to find and prices will rise. Slowly, but at a quicker rate than a year ago we will see the supply chain move back to North America. I would also expect Mexico to see manufacturing and supply chain growth, especially since USMCA is in effect now and labor is cheaper in Mexico.
As far as the real estate market goes, I expect industrial to hit a small bump in the road, especially in the distribution market. I would expect manufacturing buildings to lease up and flex buildings to continue to lease and sell at a steady rate. I would expect the residential market to remain strong due to continued high demand and limited supply. This may even create a tougher market for buyers and new construction as a whole, because building materials could increase in cost due to the supply chain being choked by global coronavirus fears.
Long term, bringing manufacturing and supply chain back to the US will create a stronger US economy and help the environment because the US has high environmental standards compared to China.
14,010 SF Industrial building sold off market to Technicians for Sustainability. The former owner was DBLS Holdings.
The building will be used by the solar company, Technicians for Sustainability and West Coast Roofing occupies about 2,500 SF of the building.
This transaction was handled by Max Fisher and Paul Hooker of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR
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Rob Glaser & Max Fisher of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR handled the transaction.
At closing, the 24,903 SF business park had one 4,000 SF vacancy. Existing tenants include, KG's Westside Cafe, Bellazza Salon, Northwest Hospital, and High Point Scientific.
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Something to watch. We have a very limited housing supply. I believe this is mostly because the millennial generation recently jumped into the housing market so now we have the millennials AND baby boomers AND those in between are active in the housing market. Supply will become more available as the baby boomer generation ages. Values of housing may drop substantially as baby boomers exit the housing market and millennials fail to reproduce like previous generations.
Photo is 12 Acres of the remaining Tucson Airport Commerce Center industrial land ($1,830,000) listed by Rob Glaser and Max Fisher of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR. Other parcels are owned or leased by Chamberlain (Liftmaster), Eastgroup, Custom Back Office Solutions, Diamond Ventures, LKQ, Walmart, DR Horton, Intuit, and Keystone.
Max Fisher and Molly Gilbert of Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR Represented the buyer
Dave Volk and Bruce Suppes represented the seller
for leasing details contact Mfisher@picor.com or 520-465-9989
Oro Valley is a developing biotech cluster and is home to many notable biotech and aerospace companies, including Ventana Medical Systems-Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, University of Arizona Bio-lab, University of Arizona Veterinary College, University of Arizona Center for Innovation, Securaplane, Arbico, Freeport Mcmoran, Simpleview, Honeywell, and Miles Label.
Seller represented by Max Fisher and Rob Glaser, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR
Buyer represented by Michael Shiner, CXT Realty
Please don't hesitate to inquire about any Oro Valley or Southern Arizona Property
Other recent Oro Valley transactions completed by Rob Glaser and Max Fisher
-10900 N Stallard, $4,400,000
-2300 E Vistoso Commerce Way, $1,100,000
Several large companies remain interested in relocating in Tucson, which would further compress our vacancy if other market factors hold steady. Despite some national forecasts and early indicators of future headwinds, the Tucson industrial market shows no tangible signs of slowdown and should continue on its current pace into the new year.
Above photos: Los Reales industrial land with proposed development plans for sale $6,450,000
Tucson Median household income is up 2.6% over the past year and US consumer spending growth is up 4.1%. Labor and materials costs continue to rise, effectively increasing development costs. Recent openings of Gunnison Project Copper Mine and South 32 Mine in Patagonia have spurred growth in southern Arizona mining and the businesses supporting the mining industry. Residential master-planned communities such as Lazy K, Rocking K, and Gladden Farms continue to advance, spurring job growth in the construction industry and absorption of industrial properties for contractors and construction supply distributors. Tucson’s population has grown 1.4% over the past year. California residents and companies are increasingly moving to Tucson as California costs of doing business and living continue to rise. US unemployment improved to 3.7% as Tucson’s slightly increased to 4.7% from a year ago.
The Tucson industrial market remained stable through Q3 2019. While the overall market vacancy rose one percentage point from the second quarter to 6.1%, this change is impacted by several large back-office (call center) spaces that have recently come on the market which is included in the available space. Aside from call center availabilities, however, the industrial market remained tight and primarily a landlord/seller’s market. High absorption during the quarter is actually carry-over from late Q2 2019 and is primarily related to the Amazon distribution center coming online. In addition, the market vacancy is overstated by 90 basis points due to inclusion of 423,036 square feet (sf) of space in four buildings currently occupied, but available. Rents remained firm but relatively flat, with just enough vacancy in the market and a lack of new speculative construction to tamp-down what would otherwise contribute to accelerating rents during this strong market cycle. The divide between rents on existing space and what is needed for most new construction persists, which is holding back land sales and new speculative construction in the market. On the sale side, investor interest maintained velocity, with regional investors flocking to tertiary markets such as Tucson in search of cap rates exceeding those in the competitive, primary markets. Marketwide sales prices have averaged approximately $93 per for the last six quarters. Smaller user properties are also seeing robust purchase and sale activity.
Recent announcements with the South 32 mine in Patagonia and Rosemont Copper are bringing increased activity to Tucson with companies such as Hexagon Mining and Caterpillar. There have also been recent openings of smaller scale copper mines in Cochise County that haven't received much, if any press. We expect to see this activity ramp up and soon we will see increased activity with mining sub-contractors and materials suppliers, especially in the Palo Verde to Vail sub markets. Aerospace, defense and mining manufacturing continue to lead the charge in Tucson manufacturing.
The strongest sub-markets in Tucson are the Northwest and Downtown markets. As the downtown and northwest markets have around 3% vacancy we will watch as demand grows further North into Marana with new construction and further south towards the airport and Vail, effectively filling already vacant buildings to the South and East. Airport and Palo Verde area activity is much stronger than this time last year. Rates in the Palo Verde market have already jumped from $.50 MG to $.60 MG within one year.
Tucson continued to experience strong employment, ending September at a 4.7% unemployment rate. Meanwhile, manufacturing, logistics, and construction employers struggle to find skilled manufacturing labor.
There are also rumblings of medium to large industrial land transactions in Marana and near the Tucson airport.......more to come soon.
-Raytheon announced a merger with United Technologies which will be the largest defense merger in US history
-Nikola Motors announced a new 400 acre manufacturing facility in Pinal County
-Modular Mining expands autonomous mining research, development and manufacturing operations in Tucson
-Lucid Motors announces new $700,000,000 manufacturing facility in Pinal County
-Harsch Investment started construction on a 150,000 SF + speculative distribution facility near the Tucson Airport
- University of Arizona Veterinarian College purchases a 40,000 SF facility in Oro Valley
Recent significant industrial transactions completed by Max Fisher;
Lease - 2005 N 13th Ave - 13,848 SF
Sale - 6060 S Brosius - 59,500 SF
Sale - 10900 N Stallard - 38,010 SF
Lease - 1668 S Research Loop - 7,500 SF
Sale - 2300 E Vistoso Commerce Loop - 12,000 SF
Lease - 4151 E Tennessee - 7,500 SF
Most recent manufacturing deals completed by Max Fisher;
Arizona Heritage Cabinetry
Nelson Precision Machining
The global economy shows signs of weakening while the American labor market continues to grow strong
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Listed by Max Fisher and Ron Zimmerman, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR
Retail Space, Industrial Rate
Listed by Max Fisher, Cushman & Wakefield | PICOR 520-465-9989 Text or Call
Max Fisher, Industrial Properties Broker